That's highly likely once per year a 1 in 2^9 event or 1 in 512.ĭon't think that's better than 1 in 365, because winning that last toss does not get you back in pocket. Your analogy with marbles is sort of correct, but you underestimate how often 'stupid unlucky happens.įinger in the air estimate, if you start with a bankroll of $36,500 and each day you aspire to either make $100 or lose everything, on a coin toss marty with starting wager of $100, then you can expect to lose 36500 approximately once in the year. I answer this in this blog postĪpplies to whatever money management system you can dream up.Īny safe enough 'goal to bankroll' is pretty pointless, except as a fun exercise, since you will, on average, lose everything as often as you double your bankroll. I am thinking of testing this project for a year. Would it be reasonable to say one can make a living by making (setting a target of) ie $100 per day using a bankroll of $50,000, perhaps even $12,800? Sure stupid unlucky can happen at a given day, but at what 'goal to bankroll ratio' can be considered 'safe' or perhaps 'safe enough'? In other words in a game of marbles, if I bring 1,000 marbles vs my opponent with 10 marbles, 'most likely' I will walk away up 1 marble than losing all.Īlthough coin flips won't have memory, statistically there seems to be a 'very very good chance' you won't lose 8+ coin flips in a row using ie martingaleġ/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2*1/2= 1/128 = 0.00390625% (Using perhaps one of the many betting systems or a mixture there of)Īlthough the one thing I've learned is NO BETTING SYSTEM WORKS, I've also learned the only strategy that HAS helped me is within bankroll management.

Would it be reasonable to say one can make a living by making (setting a target of) ie $100 per day using a bankroll of $50,000, perhaps even $12,800? I'm new and joined this forum ask and discuss this topic/question.

Hit and run gambling strategy